Abstract
MUAIR simple dispersion model was used to estimate the Air pollutant concentrations in the ambient air caused by transportation. The pollutants estimated in this study were PM, CO, NOx and HC and the concentrations were estimated for the year 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020. Bandung city was divided into 11 columns and 8 rows of grid. The size of each grid is 2000 x 2000 m. The calculation of the emission level on each grid was based on the traffic density on each grid and the total yearly emission level projected from previous study of ARRPEEC. Five-year meteorological data were used in model.
Three scenarios were selected in order to reduce emission level from transportation sector. First scenario is Business As Usual (BAU scenario) based on the change of economic conditions, which is in this case remaining constant. The second is the technological option scenario, When the effectiveness and emissions level of the transport sector of the whole city is concerned (integrating multiple mitigation option), more alternative technologies have to be implemented to meet the desired emission reduction. The type and the share of alternative technologies in the transport mix depend on the desired emission reduction.
The selected options for Bandung include microbus-LPG, Bus-LPG, Bus-Biodiesel. The last scenario is the least cost option. Least-cost itself is defined as an analysis technique in which various strategies are valuated in terms of their unit cost for achieving an objective (Litman, 1999). The results from BAU scenario indicated that pollutant CO, NOx , HC and PM predicted to be 43566.9 ug/m3 , 3045.9, 3657.1 and 212.6 ug/m3 respectively for the year 2005.
The concentrations increase two to three times for the year 2020. The technology option did not show significant reduction since the number of the vehicles for bus and microbus were very small compare to the passenger cars. The results from least cost option shows significant reduction of CO concentrations during the year 2005 to 2020.
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