ABSTRACT

The phenomenal increase in vehicular ownership and transport demand during the past two decades have made the transport sector become the major source of air and noise pollution in many cities in the Republic of Korea. Consequently, environmental sustainability has become a major issue of concern in transport development. Various policy instruments and other measures have been applied or are under consideration tocontain transport demand and greenhouse gas emissions to promote sustainable transport development in the Republic of Korea.

Evaluating the effectiveness of a policy measure is important in deciding its relevance. A framework has been developed in this paper which can be applied to evaluate the effectiveness of policy measures. In this paper, we estimate the indicators related to transport and the environment in the Republic of Korea up to 2020. A forecastof vehicle ownership was made since it was the most important parameter for estimating road travel and energy demand in the transport sector. The estimation was done by a lagged power growth function, with real income and cost of vehicle ownership as explanatory variables. Subsequently, other indicators such as transport demand, energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions were estimated for each transport mode. We also discuss the government administrative structure and policy measures for sustainable development in the transport sector and finally, analyse the effectiveness of two policy measures by quantifying their potential in reducing transport demand and CO2 emissions.

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