With Governor Sutiyoso securing a US$500 million loan for the monorail, hopes are high that it will be provide a modern, efficient and fast mode of transportation for the congested city.

But a public transportation expert says the short routes currently planned for it and stiff competition among existing public transportation along the routes suggest a bleak future for the yet to be completed monorail.

"I predict the monorail project will suffer a severe loss. The demand is just not there to cover all the investment," Darmaningtyas, of the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy (ITDP), told The Jakarta Post on Sunday.

He referred to the latest survey carried out by the ITDP.

Expected to up and running next year, the monorail will serve a 14.8 kilometer "green line" along Jl. HR Rasuna Said-Jl. Gatot Subroto-Jl. Asia Afrika-Jl. Karet business area and a 12.2 kilometer line from Kampung Melayu in East Jakarta to Roxy in West Jakarta.

The survey found that the number of commuters from Kampung Melayu to the Kuningan area reached 1,500 people at peak hour and around 15,000 people for the whole day.

Most of these commuters are traveling to nearby destinations, preferring to take public minivans serving the route, which cost around Rp 2,000.

A ticket for the monorail on the same route will be Rp 7,500 for one trip.

Another weakness of the monorail, Darmaningtyas added, was commuters would have to walk considerable distances to get to their destinations or even take another form of public transport from the monorail stations.

"Commuters would most likely prefer to take a taxi with a group rather than taking the monorail. It would cost about the same or could even be cheaper."

A transportation expert from the Pelangi Indonesia Foundation, Andi Rahmah, added that it would be impossible for the monorail operator to meet the target of 270,000 passengers per day required to cover daily operational costs.

"The maintenance cost will be high because the stations use lots of electricity for their elevators," the City Transportation Council member told the Post.

"The developer also failed to calculate the inflation in the past two years that has increased the construction cost by 30 percent from the original proposal made in 2004. The increase has slowed down the construction."

Darmaningtyas said the monorail in Kuala Lumpur had transported 80,000 people a day in its first three months. "The number of passengers eventually decreased by half as they preferred to take a more accessible mode of public transportation."

"Mobility is not the only thing we need in our life. We also need space to breathe. What the city administration must do is to make the most of the already available public transport, such as the city train," he said.

Source: http://www.thejakartapost.com/detailcity.asp?fileid=20060313.G02&irec=2