In 2003, Indonesia's government expressed its intention to ban leaded gasoline in 2005. But Indonesia didn't quite achieve this objective on time but in May this year, its refineries ceased using lead with the reported aim of improving the quality of the country's gasoline.

Over the past decade there has been much discussion on the environmental merits of banning leaded gasoline. In particular, the Asian Development Bank, The World Bank, WHO and other NGOs have contributed to the global initiatives to achieve gasoline lead phase-out. Simultaneously, various assessments have been made as to the financial implications for lead elimination, including the massive capital investment required by countries and their refineries.

Naturally, Indonesia's refineries have assessed their own situation. They are well-aware of the need to replace lead's lost octane numbers by the installation, at huge cost, of new refining units to produce unleaded fuel. Also taken into account has been the extra crude oil consumed in refinery processing when lead's octane boosting properties are lost.

For financial reasons the refinery investment program has not kept pace with the rapidly approaching lead phase-out deadline. This is unsurprising given the consequential adverse economic impact on Indonesia's refineries and the country's balance-of-payments. Importing the hi-tech refinery units costs hundreds of millions of dollars.

One option open to the government was to further delay lead's elimination from refineries, ie until the proposed up-grading measures were in place. However, from recent reports, it seems that the decision has been taken suddenly to end lead's use as a gasoline additive as of the end of May although legally the lead use is still allowed by Indonesian government.

But, you may ask, what about the quality of Indonesia's gasoline now that it no longer contains lead? Will our cars suffer catastrophic engine damage? Motorists, however, can be assured that the octane quality has not suffered -- the unleaded gasoline on the forecourts meets the country's long-standing fuel specifications.

How has this been achieved? Well, Indonesia has taken the very expensive and completely unnecessary measure of importing high octane unleaded gasoline components from high quality, complex, refineries in the Southeast Asia region. Singapore is one such country where these hi-tech refineries exist. However, literally millions of liters of these blending components are required to provide the octane numbers lost by lead's elimination.

The financial consequences of these imports are immense; the economy of Indonesia has suffered and that of our more prosperous neighbor has benefited tremendously. And all this has come at a time when the nation, like many others worldwide, is struggling to cope with difficult economic times with high energy and raw material prices. Additionally, it also has to recover from a sequence of horrendous natural disasters so handling the county's budget deficit has quite rightly been a major preoccupation of the government.

In recent times, crude oil prices have been as high as they have ever been. With US$70 plus per barrel being the norm, the cost of the imported high octane blending components has risen dramatically. The damaging knock-on effects for Indonesia's imports and economy are clear for all to see.

So what's the solution? Clearly, one simple, practical and cost-effective option open to the government is, for the time being, to cease imports of unleaded blending components and instruct the refineries to return to lead to produce gasoline of the right quality. As things stand at the moment, although the refineries are no longer blending with lead, leaded gasoline is still, quite rightly, permitted.

This makes sound financial sense but what about the environmental implications of such a measure? Over the past 15 years or so, most countries worldwide have phased lead out of gasoline. This has been because unleaded is required to fuel cars equipped with catalytic converters. Also, this policy was adopted for prudent environmental health reasons. But, siting cogent economic arguments, some developing countries have retained lead's use, at least for the time being and until crude oil prices become lower.

There have been no recent studies on the health effects of gasoline lead which mitigate against Indonesia's refineries returning to lead's use for a further period of time. So the government would not come under attack for taking such a measure from other nations, or from NGOs and environmental pressure groups.

Remember, the U.S. and Europe took 20 or more years to complete the transition from leaded to totally unleaded gasoline. Such action need not be for the long-term. The decision can be periodically reviewed and the ban re-introduced as soon as the crude oil prices fall sufficiently, refineries are sufficiently up-graded and/or the country's economic and socio economic condition improves.

Sensible pragmatism of this kind can be easily and fully justified. In these increasing difficult times, it doesn't make economic sense to struggle-on under the unnecessary burden of expensive gasoline components imports and the production of leaded gasoline should continue for the benefit of all Indonesians.

The writer is a UK-based international consultant on clean fuels, engines and emissions, and air quality inter-relationships. He is a member of the UK's Environmental Industries Commission.

Source: http://www.thejakartapost.com/yesterdaydetail.asp?fileid=20060831.F04