Abstract

New light- and heavy-duty vehicles in China will be required to meet increasingly stringent emissions standards in the coming years. Beyond Euro 2, however, corresponding fuel standards have not yet been adopted. A cost-benefit analysis was completed to analyze a variety of scenarios to reduce vehicle emissions in China. The primary analysis deals with different scenarios for the introduction of reduced sulfur fuels and a supplemental analysis considered the costs and benefits of improved fuels and vehicles together and analysis of an additional step in fuel and vehicle standards beyond what has already been proposed. The cost-benefit methodology includes: mobile source emissions modeling, measuring the impact of reduced emissions on exposure, quantification and valuation of health benefits resulting from reduced exposure, and determination of the added vehicle and fuel costs. The analysis measures health benefits primarily from urban areas, estimating human exposure in the 59 largest cities in China. Although the monetary values assigned to reduced mortality and morbidity are lower in China, this analysis found strong net benefits and benefit-to-cost ratios for improving fuel quality and vehicle standards, results which are similar to the developed world. The 2020–2030 benefit-to-cost ratio for all scenarios ranged from 7 to 41. Net benefits continue to increase over time. Considering fuels to vehicle standards together results in annual net benefits of approximately US $100 billion by 2030. These results demonstrate that vehicle standards already in place will be a major step towards improving air quality and reducing health impacts and that matching fuel and vehicle standards provides the highest net benefits.

Presentation: http://www.cleanairnet.org/baq2006/1757/docs/SP10_4.ppt