Abstract:

Aerosols are an important pollutant in urban areas. PM2.5 (the fraction of aerosols having diameter less than 2.5ƒÝm) are considered to have significant adverse effect to human health and stringent regulations to reduce PM2.5 emission have been issued in many world regions. PM2.5 also affects climate in urban areas by changing Earth¡¦s radiative balance. We present an assessment of how actions taken to improve air quality in different world regions may produce co-benefits by reducing climate effects. This research requires an understanding of the chemical composition of the particles. We estimate aerosol emissions from industrial and utility boilers over the next 25 years using a technology-based emission inventory that represents firing technology and control devices. .Future changes are driven by energy forecasts from four IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios. These scenarios depict different emphases including economic growth, cooperation, and technology improvement. We use technology adoption modeling to infer the composition of the increased technology base and the rate at which older, polluting technologies are phased out. Technologies adopted under different scenarios are forecast from controlling factors such as GDP per capita, emission standards and others. Reliability and applicability of predicting variables are examined using the historical boiler inventory data of the United States. We also simulate improvements in control device efficiency as technological innovations that stem from such pressures as stringent regulations and popularity of technology. Results are expanded to 17 major world regions, and future emissions of boilers are estimated using technology shares and fuel consumption. We estimate the change in radiative climate forcing by aerosols and CO2 under each scenario.

Presentation: http://www.cleanairnet.org/baq2006/1757/docs/SW18_1.ppt