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An evaluation of public health impact of ambient air pollution under various energy scenarios in Shanghai, China
Received 6 January 2003; accepted 10 September 2003 HaidongKan(a); Bingheng Chen(a); Changhong Chen(b); Qingyan Fu(b); Minghua Chen(b) (a)Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, 138 Yixueyuan Road, Shanghai 200032, China (b)Shanghai Academy of Environmental Science, Shanghai 200233, China Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, 138 Yixueyuan Road, Shanghai 200032, China bShanghai Academy of Environmental Science, Shanghai 200233, China Received 6 January 2003; accepted 10 September 2003

To investigate the potential public health impact of ambient air pollution under various energy scenarios in Shanghai, we estimated the air pollution exposure level of the general population under various planned energy scenarios, and assessed the potential public health impact usingthe concentration–response functions derived from available epidemiologic studies. The results show that ambient air pollution in relation to various energy scenarios could have significant impact on the health status of Shanghai residents. Compared with base case scenario, implementation of various energy scenarios could prevent 608–5144 and 1189–10,462 PM10-related avoidable deaths (mid-value) in 2010 and 2020, respectively; and it could also decrease substantial cases of relevant diseases. These findings illustrate that an effective energy and environmental policy will play an active role in reduction of air pollutant emissions, improvement of air quality, and public health.

2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.


An evaluation of public health impact of ambient air pollution under various energy scenarios in Shanghai, ChinaAn evaluation of public health impact of ambient air pollution under various energy scenarios in Shanghai, China
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Minghua Chen
Qingyan Fu
HaidongKan
Chen, Bingheng
Chen, Changhong
Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University
Shanghai Academy of Environmental Science, Shanghai
1818 H Street / N.W. / Washington / D.C. 20433 / Teléfono: +1 (202) 458-0859 / Fax: +1 (202) 676-0977/8
E-mail: [email protected]