Over the past two years, the IEA has worked with the WBCSD’s Sustainable Mobility Project (SMP) to develop a global transport spreadsheet model ( 8.3 MB) that can serve both organizations in conducting projections and policy analysis. The accompanying report documents the model ( 40 kb) and describes the final reference case used in the SMP’s Final Report, Mobility 2030: Meeting the Challenges to Sustainability.
The IEA/SMP Transport Spreadsheet Model is designed to handle all transport modes and most vehicle types. It produces projections of vehicle stocks, travel, energy use and other indicators through 2050 for a reference case and for various policy cases and scenarios. It is designed to have some technology-oriented detail and to allow fairly detailed bottom-up modeling.
The model does not include any representation of economic relationships (e.g., elasticities) nor does it track costs. Rather, it is an "accounting" model, anchored by the "ASIF" identity:
- Activity (passenger and freight travel)
- Structure (travel shares by mode and vehicle type)
- Intensity (fuel efficiency)
- Fuel type = fuel use by fuel type (and CO2 emissions per unit fuel use).
Various indicators are tracked and characterized by coefficients per unit travel, per vehicle or per unit fuel use as appropriate.
The modes, technologies, fuels, regions and basic variables included in the spreadsheet model are shown in the table below. Not all technologies or variables are covered for all modes. Apart from energy use, the model tracks emissions of CO2, and CO2-equivalent GHG emissions (from vehicles as well as upstream), PM, NOx, HC, CO and Pb. Projections of safety (fatalities and injuries) are also incorporated.