Worldwide energy consumption is projected to grow by 57 percent between 2002 and 2025, according to the International Energy Outlook 2005 (IEO2005) released today by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The IEO2005 shows strongest growth in energy consumption among the emerging economies of the world, especially emerging Asia (including China and India), where robust economic growth drives the increase in energy use over the projection period. Energy use among emerging economies more than doubles over the forecast period.
In contrast to the emerging economies of the world, slower growth in energy demand is projected for the United States and the other mature market economies, which experience a combined 27-percent increase in energy use between 2002 and 2025. The mature market economies are characterized by well-established energy consumption patterns and infrastructure, combined with a shift from energy-intensive industries to service industries to temper the growth in energy demand.
Energy use in the transitional economies of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union are expected to grow by 45 percent over the forecast period. Slow or declining population growth in this region, combined with strong projected gains in energy efficiency as old, inefficient equipment is replaced, leads to more modest growth in energy demand than in the emerging economies.
World oil prices-expressed in terms of the U.S. refiner acquisition cost of imported crude oil-rose by more than $9 per barrel (in nominal dollars) over the course of 2004 and are expected to add an additional $11 per barrel in 2005. Looking forward, the IEO2005 reference case adopts a world oil price scenario developed in late 2004 in which prices decline from present levels by 2010, then start to increase.
World oil use is expected to grow to 119 million barrels per day in 2025. The United States, China, and the rest of emerging Asia account for 63 percent of the projected growth in world oil use. The projection for oil demand in 2025 is somewhat lower than the 121 million barrels per day forecast in last year's Outlook, due in large part to the higher world oil price projections in IEO2005. The decline in demand would be even greater if not for the robust growth projected in China in the short term. China's oil use is projected to grow by an average 7.5 percent per year from 2002 to 2010, before slowing to 2.9 percent per year for the remainder of the forecast.
The projected increment in world oil use would require an increment in world oil production capacity of about 35 million barrels per day relative to today's level. Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are expected to be the major suppliers of the increased production, accounting for 60 percent of the projected increase in world capacity. In addition, non-OPEC supply is expected to remain competitive, with major increments to supply coming from offshore resources, especially in the Caspian Basin, Latin America, and deepwater West Africa.
Other report highlights include:
- Natural Gas Demand: Natural gas is the fastest growing component ofworld primary energy in the IEO2005 reference case. Over the 2002 to 2025 forecast horizon, consumption of natural gas is projected toincrease by 69 percent to 156 trillion cubic feet. Natural gas is likely to be favored for electricity generation in many parts of theworld, given its relative efficiency in comparison with other energy sources, as well as the fact it burns more cleanly than either coalor oil and thus is an attractive alternative for countries pursuing reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Natural gas is also animportant energy resource in the industrial sector, and that sector accounts for 36 percent of the total growth in natural gas demandover the 2002 to 2025 period.
- Nuclear Power: The IEO2005 reference case projects that electricitygeneration from nuclear will rise from 2,560 billion kilowatthours in 2002 to 3,270 billion kilowatthours in 2025. Higher fossil fuelprices and the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol are expectedto improve prospects for new nuclear power capacity, which had beenexpected to decline at the end of the forecast period in last year'sIEO. The strongest growth in nuclear generation is projected in thecountries of emerging Asia, where nuclear power generation triplesbetween 2002 and 2025.
- Carbon Dioxide Emissions: In the IEO2005 reference case, carbondioxide emissions are projected to rise from 24.4 billion metric tons in 2002 to 30.2 billion metric tons in 2010 and 38.8 billion metrictons in 2025 (Figure 3). Much of the projected increase in emissionsis expected to occur among the emerging economies, accompanying largeincreases in fossil fuel use. The emerging economies account for68 percent of the projected increment in carbon dioxide emissionsbetween 2002 and 2025. Continued reliance on coal and other fossilfuels, as projected for the emerging economies of the world, ensures that even when those nations that have ratified the Kyoto Protocolundertake to reduce their carbon dioxide emissions as required in the treaty, there still will be a substantial increase in worldwide carbondioxide emissions over the forecast horizon.
Copies of IEO2005 are available from the U.S. Government Printing Office or through EIA's National Energy Information Center, Room 1E-238, Forrestal Building, Washington, DC 20585, 202/586-8800.
The report is also available on EIA's Web Site at http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html .
The figures referenced above may be viewed along with this press release on EIA's Web Site or can be requested from EIA's Press Contact.